The Worth Of The Virginia Primary

2 February, 2008. 352 words.

Many bloggers here are hoping (a bit desperately, I think) that the Virginia presidential primiaries on February 12 will matter. I’m skeptical.

First of all, 90% of the candidates have already dropped out of the race, including a couple that I might have considered voting for. I’ll never have a chance to vote for Chris Dodd or Tommy Tancredo! (Just kidding.)

And there’s also the minor fact that after Super Tuesday (February 5), one candidate will probably have collected enough delegates to win. According to CNN, the “magic number” is 2,025 for Democrats and 1,191 for Republicans. I assume that is the required number of delegates to win the nomination. (Why they have to label it a “magic number” and not the “required delegates” I have no idea.)

According to Wikipedia, the Democrats have 2,088 delegates and the Republicans have 1,069/1,081 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday. For the Democrats, Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, the Virgin Islands, and Maine will all have primaries before Virginia, for an additional total of 239 delegates. For the Republicans, Kansas, Washington, and Louisiana will have primaries for a total of (I think) 77 delegates.

Obama and McCain currently have 63 and 95 delegates, respectively. The media is obviously going to brainwash everyone into voting for them by constantly pushing them as “the undisputed frontrunners,” so they’ll get a huge boost going into Super Tuesday, and that will be that. Thanks for playing the game of democracy, Virginia. Maybe next time you’ll actually get a turn.

For comparison, according to CNN’s 2004 Primaries page, John Kerry had picked up 330 delegates coming into Virginia’s February 10 primary, while second-place finisher John Edwards had only 90. Back then, it looks like only 11 states had a primary before Virginia. This year, it’s about 30.

Can’t we just have them all on the same day? If nothing else, it would drive a spike through the heart of the news media.

UPDATE: I guess my cynicism got the best of me. It appears that Virginia will play a role in the primaries after all, at least on the Democratic side.

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