Theories About Bush’s New Way Forward

13 January, 2007. 627 words.

The pundit shows have been hammering the same message over and over again, which is basically, “Bush must be insane to threaten Iran and Syria.” Democrats and even some Republicans appear to be conveying the same message.

I have some theories for what might be going on here, in order of confidence expressed in the Bush administration.

Theory 1

This one is a stretch, but bear with me. The Bush administration must have known that his speech wasn’t going to be popular, and they must have known the airwaves would be filled with pundits and Congressmen questioning his judgment about the surge and Iran, and they must have known that Iran and Syria would be eagerly soaking it all in on CNN. Ever since Norman Schwarzkopf used press briefings in Desert Storm to fool the Iraqi military commanders, I’ve suspected that the military must account for and even use the press in their battle plans. So could Bush be using the media now to setup some kind of elaborate deception to distract Iran from our military’s true objective? Could Bush be pretending to be completely out of touch with the public perception of events in Iraq to somehow bait Iran and Syria into overplaying their hand? I’m sure (and I hope) the administration has access to intelligence that the media doesn’t — could Bush know something truly sinister going on with Iran and Syria? (Something besides the fact that they’re operating to stir up the insurgency in Iraq, that is.)

The mysterious raid on an Iranian “consulate” in Kurdish Iraq, of which the press has been oddly silent considering the possible implications, makes me wonder even more.

Further, the public announcement that we’ll be deploying a carrier group and Patriot missiles into the area sounds like a military deception. It sounds like an attempt to lull the Iranians into thinking, “oh, okay, they’re only guarding against long-range missiles, so we can go ahead with our plan to X, Y, Z.”

I realize this theory is wildly speculative, but I wonder. It’s hard for me to believe that the entire upper echelon of American government could be as clueless as is suggested by the media. As I’ve read on various counterterrorism blogs and as I also firmly believe, there is as much of, if not more of, an information war going on around Iraq as there is a shooting war.

Theory 2

This one seems the most likely. Unless something truly disastrous happens, after the surge has secured Baghdad (whatever that means), President Bush will “declare victory and leave.” Although in reality, our military probably won’t move very far away from Baghdad for many years to come. The threats against Iran and Syria might just be to make the public more aware of Iran and Syria’s participation in events in Iraq, something that I don’t think is commonly known.

Theory 3

Here’s a more cynical theory. The surge is simply a half-hearted political effort to appease the people who demanded a change last November, even though everyone knows it probably won’t have any lasting effect, and we’ll still be stuck in Iraq for many years to come. And knowing that the public and Congress would vociferously object to any kind of new war, Bush may have threatened Iran and Syria just to remind them he is not afraid of them and that we’re keeping a very close eye on them, and it’s only the benevolent but misguided will of the American people stopping him from bombing them back to the Stone Age.

Theory 4

And finally: The Bush administration really is insane. I don’t believe that, but I guess it’s possible.

Thomas Krehbiel writes The Krehbiel Strikes Back, a generally centrist commentary on news, media, politics, and culture.

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