On Kerry\’s Iraq Plan

HuffPo’s been awash with celebrity bloggers today: John Kerry: A Plan for Getting Iraq Up on Its Own Two Feet.

Besides the obvious fact that Kerry isn’t advancing a plan for “getting Iraq up on its own two feet” (it’s a plan for “getting our troops out of there and to hell with the Iraqis”), I don’t like this “govern or else” strategy. I’m all for Iraq standing on its own, but an immediate troop withdrawal after May 15 if they don’t “put together an effective unity government” isn’t really in America’s best interests, which makes it a hollow threat.

It seems plausible, if not likely, that Iran will pour lawyers, guns, and money into the Iraqi Shi’ite faction if we just leave (they already are). Then the Kurds will probably pack up and leave too, creating their own little defenseless country, and any remaining Sunnis in Iraq will probably get euthanized. Messily. This may or may not prompt reactions from neighboring countries. In any case, Iran will be working diligently to acquire Iraq’s oil fields, either politically or militarily. And that’s kind of bad. (And remember, Persia and Mesopotamia have been fighting for regional dominance for ages.)

I agree with Kerry that the Iraqi future is basically up to the Iraqi politicians now. And sadly, there’s no military solution for creating a unity government. Like it or not, I think the U.S. military is all that’s keeping that place from utter ruination (and yes, despite georgia10’s thoughtful commentary, I think they have a loooong way to go before they reach that point — think about Somalia or Darfur). Plus, I think since we caused the whole mess (with considerable help from Saddam), we ought to stick around until Iraq’s at least stable enough to fend off their neighbors.

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